The 2026 session of the Georgia legislature will be one of the most unusual ones we have seen in a few years. There are several reasons for this, and we expect a handful of major issues to dominate the policy process.
General Landscape
There are three big factors that will shape the session. First, it will be the last session (absent a special) for Governor Brian Kemp. The Governor has an approval rating that floats around 60%, which basically translates to very high public support in a purple state like Georgia, and he will be highly capable of exerting as much influence as he decides to over outcomes. Secondly, we have a very high number of statewide seats open, which are largely being contended for by elected officials who will be active in the legislative process. Finally, special elections so far have given Republican leaders and strategists good reason to be concerned about 2026. This all adds up to a push-pull process where concerns about winning primary elections will collide with more centrist policies that are targeted to protect the current GOP majorities.
We also expect to see the calendar being a little less predictable this year as political concerns drive legislators to make shorter term commitments on meeting times. That said, we don’t expect the session to last an unusually long time since the one thing almost everyone agrees on is that being locked inside the Capitol is not good for political campaigning (or fundraising).
Beneath this, we see four major areas where policy debates are likely to quickly take root. This is not to say completely new issues will not emerge, but we do expect these issues to be front and center when the starting bell sounds.
Tax and Budget
Tax and budget will undoubtedly be the biggest issues facing legislators in January. The House has largely committed to cutting property taxes, which fund local governments and schools. The Senate has taken a different approach, with a high-profile effort to tee up large income tax reductions. Tax policy changes feed directly into the budget process since Georgia must pass a balanced budget and lost revenues must either be replaced with new taxes or spending cuts.
In terms of the budget, Governor Kemp has consistently embraced a three-pronged approach to developing his budget: tax rebates, careful fiscal management and targeted investments in state infrastructure. Revenue collections were only slightly up during Q4, with sales taxes providing most of the gains. In other words, consumers in Georgia are not seeing large income increases, but continue to spend with confidence. From a careful and conservative budgeting standpoint, this doesn’t add up to much “new” money for legislators to spend.
If you net all this out, debates over tax policy and spending priorities are likely to dominate the session.
Social Issues
With so many Republicans serving in the legislature vying to win primary elections, it is inevitable that partisan fights will occur around divisive issues. These include issues such as immigration, transgender policies, de-banking fights and a host of others. On a net basis, these types of conflicts benefit primary campaigns for both parties, because candidates can play to their base with legislation, press conferences and floor debates. The big question in the minds of most analysts is whether the desire to position in primary elections will win out over the impulse to play to the center with an eye towards what will clearly be highly competitive general elections. Members in swing districts will largely argue against controversy, while those in deep red or blue districts will largely court it. This is a standard feature of a Georgia legislative session, but we expect all of the upcoming ballot action to magnify it.
Technology
Americans are increasingly transfixed by debates around rapidly changing technologies and the impact those changes have. There are already dozens of technology focused bills out there and we expect to see more. While you cannot predict them all, there are several large issues that will almost certainly capture headlines. Those issues are AI, data centers, e-commerce and social media.
On the AI front, federal policy has somewhat limited state legislators to matters involving criminal activity and youth protection. While that seems like a narrow lane, it’s actually a pretty wide one, because you can shape most issues around those objectives. The data center debate is a familiar one, and Georgia continues to attract these projects. The most likely conflict point is tax policy, but we may also see debates around infrastructure serving data centers as well. E-commerce is an area with longstanding fault lines around processing fees, online crime, and simple competition between traditional and virtual businesses. We are sure to see those issues getting continued attention. Finally, social media is likely to be a topic of discussion, largely because national AI policy will push debate toward protecting kids.
Inflation, Jobs, Housing and Growth
It’s no secret Americans are being squeezed as incomes fail to keep up with costs. This would be the top issue, except that most of the policies around it are difficult to implement within a single state. That said, we think that debate over housing policies will be front and center, largely because the metro Atlanta MSA continues to lag the nation in delivering new housing units. Additionally, Georgia’s attractiveness as a location for new businesses and relocating employers has led to some level of backlash in communities where many citizens, particularly older citizens, would prefer a slower pace of growth. This dynamic is likely to lead to some level of discussion (which will feed into the tax debate) about how much appetite lawmakers have to use policy to incent job growth.
Other Issues
There are, of course, a large bucket of other issues on the table. Some of the major issues are likely to involve energy policy, auto dealer licensing, efforts to prepare for the World Cup in Georgia, cell phone bans in schools, genetically modified foods, institutional ownership of homes and liability protections for users of pesticides and other chemicals.